2024 Mortgage Lending Expected to Surpass TMA Club’s Predictions

A significant majority of TMA Club’s mortgage brokers forecast a rise in mortgage lending this year, beyond what official projections estimated.

Last year saw a 28% drop in gross lending to £226 billion, as borrowers had to cut back expenses due to the fast-rising cost of living.

From a recent survey by TMA Club, 20% of brokers are of the view that 2024’s gross lending will exceed £251 billion.

Additionally, 60% believe the year’s gross lending will fall between £220 billion and £250 billion.

Lisa Martin, the development director at TMA, commented that worries over inflation seem to be diminishing sooner than the Bank of England anticipated. She also hinted at a possible reduction in the base rate later this year as suggested by the Bank’s Governor, Andrew Bailey.

This change early in the year is boosting confidence among borrowers, with advisers reporting increased activity.

Martin notes, while affordability issues persist, lenders are competitively pricing their products to capture more of the market, sustaining the level of activity.

Signs indicate an upturn in the housing market with buyer demand on the rise and stable remortgage activity, amidst improving credit conditions.

Anthony from RBC Capital Markets remarked on the Bank of England’s first-quarter Credit Conditions Survey, saying that it matches current market trends. Mortgage access is on the rise, as is the approval rate for mortgage applications.

Although mortgage costs held steady rather than declined in Q1, they are expected to remain stable next quarter, which is promising for prospective home buyers and signals continued momentum in the UK housing market pre-election.