Even the House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts couldn’t find straightforward calculations to back this up; the closest explanation they got was that the 300,000 target was inferred from various studies, with at least one dating as far back as 2004.
It turns out the 300,000 annual home-building goal is more of an estimate than a rule—something to aim for rather than a concrete target. But is this estimate even practical?
Determining an Accurate Figure of New Houses
Various methods hint at the housing demand, but they each suggest different numbers. The Strategic Land Group, in a 2023 report, considered multiple data sets. For instance, the Office of National Statistics estimated that 160,000 new households will be needed each year until 2028.
But that doesn’t mean we only need 160,000 new houses each year. The ONS’s projection is tied to housing availability—if more homes were built, their forecast would naturally go up, leading us into a circular argument that doesn’t effectively set the benchmark for housing needs.
Another metric by Centre for Cities found a 4.3 million housing shortfall in early 2023 and linked declining construction rates to the policies of 1947. Consequently, they suggest a need for 654,000 new houses per year to address the shortfall over a decade.
Factors Fuelling Demand
Understanding the number of people unable to rent or own their place could be beneficial. The English Housing Survey of 2018/9 showed over half a million households are accommodating people to prevent homelessness, and 1.6 million households have at least one adult who can’t afford to rent or buy independently.
Lichfields, a planning consultancy, projected we’d need to build 389,000 new homes annually to cater for these ‘concealed households’ as well as natural growth, surpassing the government’s projections. Similarly, housing charity Crisis suggests 340,000 homes need to be built each year to address a 4 million home deficit within 15 years.
“Since the Town and Country Planning Act 1947, the rate of housebuilding in England and Wales has decreased by over a third, sliding from 2% annual growth from 1856 to 1939, to just 1.2% from 1947 to 2019.”
– Ritchie Clapson – propertyCEO
Understanding Context
Assuming 300,000 is a reasonable starting point, picturing the scale of building that many homes annually presents a challenge. For perspective, over four years, this would be the equivalent of adding a population the size of Wales. Building nearly 350,000 homes each year is akin to erecting a new city the size of Leeds, the UK’s seventh-largest, every year—no mean feat.
Recent Building Efforts
In the past two decades, the UK has averaged below 190,000 new houses per year, with the peak being 243,000 in 2019/20. Even meeting the 300,000 goal would require a significant 20% increase over this peak. Moreover, local council plans currently account for just 216,000 new homes, indicating an even larger gap to bridge.
More Than Just Construction
While major builders are eager to construct new estates, most people don’t want them near their own homes. Considering England’s dense population of 434 people per square kilometre, development must happen in already crowded areas, which is generally unpopular.
Political backlash against new housing, as seen in the 2021 by-election loss in Chesham and Amersham due in part to proposed planning reforms, indicates the persistent challenge of NIMBYism (Not In My Back Yard).
A Glimmer of Hope
The government has been somewhat successful in promoting developments on brownfield sites, which are unused commercial plots. CPRE’s 2022 report indicates England has enough brownfield land for approximately 1.2 million new homes.
Brownfield developments are often viewed favourably, are completed faster than on greenfield sites, and fit well into existing infrastructure, winning votes and repurposing unused commercial spaces—an increasingly feasible option as retail and business needs change.
However, brownfield projects are typically smaller and less attractive to large housebuilders, leaving smaller, independent developers to tackle these endeavours. With the resurgence of small-scale property development, including many landlords transitioning from the changing buy-to-let market, prospects are growing. The government’s introduction of more lenient development rights has facilitated this shift, although SME developers still represent a mere 12% of national housebuilding.
In summary, meeting the government’s annual goal of 300,000 new homes seems inadequate considering varying projections and systemic challenges. Addressing the issue requires a comprehensive strategy that not only hits targets but also navigates public sentiment and makes full use of opportunities like brownfield redevelopment.
Both local and national government must step up efforts to ensure budding property developers can capitalize on the potential brownfield sites present.
